Syria needs security after the violence

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August 4, 2012

Syria needs security after the violence

Anonymous Daily Star The Daily Star Sat Aug 04, 2012, 03:25 AM EDT

Syria's 16-month uprising against President Bashar Assad appears to have entered a decisive phase, as the country's once-loosely organized rebels have launched offensives against government forces in Syria's two largest cities, Aleppo and the capital, Damascus.

Until recently, Assad's forces were able to hold firm with a "whack-a-mole" strategy that brought overwhelming force against hopelessly outgunned and disorganized rebel fighters who vanished as quickly as they appeared. But the latest clashes have shown a bold shift in tactics and increased coordination among the rebels.

The slow pace of the uprising has led to some criticism of President Barack Obama's handling of the issue, most notably from Sens. John McCain, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham. McCain has even gone so far as to advocate sidestepping the U.N. Security Council -- where Russian and Chinese vetoes have blocked three resolutions that would have placed sanctions on Assad's government -- to arm the rebels and assemble a multilateral coalition willing to intervene.

Reuters reported this week that Obama has signed an order authorizing CIA operatives to provide non-lethal aid to the rebels. But while McCain's sympathy for those seeking to oust a brutal tyrant is understandable, his calls for escalating the conflict are fraught with peril.

Those advocating a U.S.-led intervention in Syria have compared its civil war to that which occurred in Libya last year, but the two countries have vast differences that would make such a move dangerous. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi tried to squash a revolt using armed forces that had been deliberately weakened for fear of a coup.

Syria, by contrast, has tried to maintain a force capable of holding its own against Israel. It also has one of the region's most advanced anti-aircraft defense systems, making a no-fly zone similar to that imposed on Libya last year a risky proposition.

Arming the rebels, too, could backfire in a nation that shares borders with states such as Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Israel. Al-Qaida fighters once based in Iraq have moved into Syria, seeking to aid their Sunni brethren in the struggle against Assad's Alawite-dominated regime. Arms shipments may also lead to the rise of militias that could destabilize post-Assad Syria for years to come.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has blamed Russian and Chinese intransigence for prolonging the bloodshed. But the truth is that no clear, viable solution to the conflict has presented itself.

That said, Syria's recent threats of using chemical munitions against any foreign intervention should raise concerns about the security of such weapons once the conflict ends. Obama and Clinton should continue engaging world powers on Syria as the talks shift from ending the war to post-Assad planning. The entire world has a stake in seeing Syria return to security and stability as soon as possible.