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August 30, 2008

CNHI investigative series: Upstate is feeling its age

The trend of people living longer lives is a tribute to medical science and a comfort to those approaching their golden years.

At the dawn of the 20th century, the average person could expect to live 47 years; as we move into the 21st century, we can realistically expect to live to the ripe old age of 77.

What could be better?

Well, the sad fact is that we've progressed faster medically than socially. We know how to keep people alive, but we haven't figured out what to do with them in their declining years.

Few areas of the country have a more daunting assignment ahead than upstate New York, which has fewer young people and more senior citizens than much of the country.

In 2006, 12.4 percent of the population of the United States was at least 65 years old; in New York state, the figure was 13.1 percent.

Meanwhile, 6.8 percent of the population of the nation was age 5 and younger; in New York, that age group accounted for only 6.5 percent. Think of New York's population as the flow of water through a hose: As the tap is turned up on one end, the nozzle is turned down on the other.

And those numbers are expected to rise dramatically over the next few decades.

By 2010, there will be 75 million Baby Boomers between ages 46 and 64 in America; in 2020, 70 million Baby Boomers will be between 56 and 74; and in 2030, 58 million Baby Boomers will still be alive.

In fact, more than 70 million Americans will be older than 65 by 2030.

While longer life expectancy is a blessing to people reaching their golden years, it is creating serious and unprecedented problems for governments and social-services agencies trying to make their lives richer and more fulfilling.

Health care is one area in which the demographic trends are unavailing.

We have more people living longer, needing vastly more diverse medical attention, but we have fewer doctors, nurses, hospitals and nursing homes to provide it and fewer people to pay for it.

More than six out of 10 Baby Boomers will be managing more than one chronic health condition by 2030.

The Baby Boomer glut is graduating from being producers to being recipients. More resources are needed now and into the future to care for them as they age. And there aren't enough young people growing up New York, being educated and going to work here to replace them.

Between 1995 and 2000, the state had to absorb a net loss of 110,000 college graduates to other states.

People want to stay in their homes, but upstate New York is plagued by high real-estate values inflated, ironically, by the beauty and serenity of the region that draws wealthy retirees and second-home owners who can overpay for property.

The aging upstaters desperately need transportation, but there is little available in the sparsely populated, rural countryside.

Schools are facing statistical realities that are making the delivery of education more expensive for everyone "" including the senior citizens already struggling to pay taxes, buy medicine and feed themselves.

As the younger generations decline in numbers, schools have higher per-pupil costs, with fewer productive taxpayers left to share the expenses.

Students graduate from here but settle elsewhere, where jobs or a more diverse menu of activities exist, and upstate areas decline.

Houses age and are not replaced by anything new, as there is fewer required and fewer buyers able to afford new homes.

Meanwhile, agencies are hard-pressed to provide services for the growing senior population.

One optimistic outcome of all of this, however, is that more seniors are available to volunteer for their counterparts and for their communities. This means that more help can be provided for less money, as well as that growing numbers of able and agile retirees are finding useful outlets for their time and expertise.

But many more problems arise from the situation than solutions.

This series of stories by upstate newspapers in the Community Newspaper Holdings Inc. group examines exactly what these problems mean for our communities.

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