Tension with Iran is better than war

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January 21, 2012

Anonymous Daily Star The Daily Star Sat Jan 21, 2012, 02:25 AM EST

The dispute between Iran and the U.S. became more tense last week, after a bomb in Tehran killed an Iranian nuclear scientist and Iran sentenced an accused Iranian-American spy to death.

A softer stance from both sides this week seems to indicate armed conflict is not imminent. Iran's foreign minister said he is planning a resumption of nuclear talks with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, whose bloc may implement an embargo on Iranian oil starting Monday.

The Obama administration has indicated willingness to return to the table, and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said this week that a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities is still "a long way off," noting that Iran has not begun assembling nuclear weapons yet.

"The Iranians have not ended the oversight exercised by the International Atomic Energy Agency," Barak said. "That would provoke stronger international sanctions or other types of action."

Such patience is largely because of evidence that measures the U.S. and Israel have taken toward Iran are having an effect. Iran's currency has plunged to a record low, with one U.S. dollar now trading for 18,200 rials, compared with 11,000 or 12,000 last month. Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan was the third Iranian scientist killed in two years, and the Stuxnet computer virus last year temporarily knocked out roughly one-fifth of Iran's nuclear centrifuges. Others have been hit by mysterious explosions.

It's no wonder that Iran has threatened a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world's oil passes. The Iranian regime is frustrated, and short of outright war, has little leverage for fighting back. Saudi Arabia has already pledged to make up any drop in the oil supply should Iran attempt a blockade.

Some have argued that sanctions are insufficient, given that Iraq's Saddam Hussein found ways to sidestep them. But Iraq never faced the economic hardship seen now in Iran, where the most recent elections sparked protests that had to be put down by force.

In a USA Today column this week, John Bolton, who served as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. from 2005 to 2006, warned that covert operations and economic pressure are "diversions masquerading as solutions," and that "the only other option is to take pre-emptive military action."

But the lessons of Iraq should have taught us that war should never be waged while other options remain available. Besides, as defense analyst Thomas Ricks wrote this week, you can't attack Iran successfully unless you also destroy its ability to strike back.

"The 'containment vs. attack' mindset is a false dilemma," Ricks wrote. "Even if you attacked Iran, you'd still have to contain it afterward."