Three months from now, households
across the nation should have received their
packets in the mail from the U.S. Census Bureau.
But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be
any easier in this decennial count to make
sure everybody is tracked down _ or is in
the place where they’re supposed to be.
The forms for the 2010 Census are supposed
to be short and simple, with only 10
questions. They ask how many people are
living in each household, what their names
are, and to identify heads of households,
genders and races. Except for variations on
those questions, that’s basically it.
It will be one of the shortest forms ever,
and will not be asking anything about income
or if you still use an outhouse.
It should be easy, except that the forms
are supposed to be returned in April. If they
are not, the bureau has to send fieldworkers
out during the summer
to get them.
Regardless, it seems
like there are always
surprises _ and also controversy
_ every 10 years
after yet another count.
And because so much
federal and state grant
money is contingent on
population and demographics,
communities
are forced to care what
the census has to say.
City of Oneonta leaders,
for example, had a
fit after the 2000 Census
showed the city’s population
had declined by
662 people since the
1990 count. People were obviously missed,
they insisted, and the city filed a challenge.
Census officials apparently incorrectly
recorded both the number and the distribution
of city residents during the 2000 count,
and then-Mayor Kim Muller blasted the bureau
by saying there were such big errors
that city officials lacked confidence in any
of the numbers.
Unfortunately for the city, the Census Bureau
stood by its total population figure of
13,292, though it adjusted the numbers for
several wards and later did boost the total
to 13,314.
Otsego County officials also weren’t happy,
with planners saying that they thought not
only the city, but even the town of Oneonta
was undercounted. The county as a whole
gained about 1,000 people during the 1990s.
While Delaware County leaders were
pleased with a 1.8 percent gain in the 1990s,
Census estimates since then have shown the
county’s population to be declining. Chances
are the 2010 count will show that trend to
be official.
In general, many social and economic
trends that began a decade or more ago are
likely to be confirmed as growing once the
new census figures for 2010 are released.
For example, the aging population, the
decline in the number of married people,
the rise in single-female households and a
growth in minority residents will be shown
to be escalating trends with no end in sight.
Updated census estimates since 2000 indicate
where we are heading as a rural region
that mirrors the larger national demographic
changes taking place.
For example, the most recent American
Community Survey estimate, for 2008, said
15.2 percent of Otsego County’s population
was aged 65 or older. Back in 2000, the census
count showed that percentage to be 15.
Though slight, the increase is telling because
of the number of retirees who have
moved to warmer climates.
The 2000 Census said about 55 percent of
people aged 15 or older were married, while
8.3 percent were divorced. In a dramatic
change, the 2008 estimate put the percentage
of people married at 48.6, while only 7.7
percent were divorced.
That indicates how more people are forgoing
marriage in favor of cohabitation or
separate households, and the new census
should show that clearly.
Back in 2000, six percent of Otsego County’s
households were single moms with children
under 18. I expect that figure will rise,
though 2008 estimates had it holding steady.
It’s disturbing that so many of those singlemother
households are living in poverty: 36
percent in 2000. The 2008 estimate had that
figure jumping to 47 percent.
What has been increasing, however, is the
number of single females without children.
That could be another reflection, perhaps,
of the decline of marriage.
All those numbers make your eyes, and
then your head, spin. Imagine what it will be
like when the Census Bureau releases the
new statistics sometime in 2011.
In case you’re worried about, or would prefer,
not being found during the upcoming census
mailing, presumably the bureau had people
working this past summer to inventory and
check on addresses in preparation for March.
And the address checks also mean they’ll
know where to locate you if you don’t mail
in your form.
———
Cary Brunswick, a former managing editor
of The Daily Star, is editor of oneontatoday.com
and can be reached at brunswick@earthling.
net.
